![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() So, if you've tried to do tasks of this nature, keep an eye out! Tomorrow: Guesstimate, a tool for quantifying intuitions.Īs a final request, we’d also really appreciate any feedback you have about the tools or the posts, or if you have any suggestions for tools you think deserve to have posts made about them! Learn to quantitatively forecast with a short feedback loop (pastcasting).Record a 3 minute video summarising your progress instead of having an hour-long meeting with your supervisor (loom).Estimate the success of an ongoing project providing access to birth control for monitoring and evaluation (squiggle).Calculate the expected value of trialling meditating for 2 weeks ( guesstimate).Compare theories of what kinds of interventions might be useful to reduce biorisk (excalidraw, guesstimate).View an aggregate prediction for when we might expect AGI before deciding which area of AI to work in, and how (metaculus).Summarise a forum post in video form (loom).Summarise a forum post visually (excalidraw).Get feedback on your model of the impact of a grant to provide malaria bed nets (guesstimate).To make this a little more concrete than 'collaborative truth seeking', here are some examples of tasks EAs might want to do which could benefit from the use of one of these tools: (The specific tools were chosen via Chana generating many possibilities from friends, Twitter and her own use, then asking for feedback on an epistemics slack, and primarily picking the most easy-to-use-seeming ones in each category.) What kinds of tasks are we talking about? Forecasting tools and Prediction Markets: Why and How.To help people find tools which might be useful for a given project, there's also a wiki page with short summaries of tools. Sometimes posts will consist primarily of links elsewhere, if good tutorials already exist. There'll be a forum post each day for the next 7 week days, each consisting of video and text tutorials for either one complex tool or a handful of smaller tools. I've collated tutorials (where they exist) and written or recorded them (where they don't) which I think are useful for EAs. Save EAs time (searching for tutorials or looking through poorly-written documentation).Improve how EAs are using these tools (by introducing them to the key features quickly).Increase the use of collaborative truth-seeking tools (so EAs can find truth better together).Often, when tutorials exist, they're poorly written and/or not targeted at the way EAs would likely be using this tool. There are a lot of software tools available to help with this, but they don't seem to be used as often as they could be, or as broadly. We’ll also be running a short session each day in the EA GatherTown if you want to try the tools as part of a group, make sure to come along! Why do this?ĮA involves a lot of collaborating, often remotely, and in particular communicating complex models or concepts. Each day's post will also have a challenge you can use the tool to solve, to get a feel for the tool and see if it's for you. This sequence will introduce tools for doing that, alongside tutorials & guidance. In addition, taking some time to lay out your model clearly is probably good for your own thinking and understanding. It's easier to do that when it's easy to explain your view, understand others', and quickly see agreements, disagreements and cruxes. In particular, we're trying to do truth seeking. Tools exist to make this experience better, but they may be underused. EA involves working together remotely a lot. ![]()
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